Tower Group (002233) 2018 Annual Results Express Review: Regionally Maintaining High Prosperity, Greater Bay Area Boosts Medium- and Long-Term Demand
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue of 66 in 18 years.
300 million yuan, an increase of 45.
27%, net profit attributable to mother 17.
21 trillion, with an increase of 138.
7%; of which Q4 achieved revenue of 21 in a single quarter.
07 billion, an increase of 38.
44%, net profit attributable to mother 4.
72 trillion, an increase of 118.
Opinion: Withdrawal of incentives to suppress additional growth.
The three quarterly report guides the expected performance at level 17.
300 million, of which Q4 single quarter profit 4.
The 18-year performance was slightly lower than the median notice, mainly because the Q4 company provided an annual incentive bonus of 0 for employee stock holdings in accordance with the “2018-2023 Employee Stock Ownership Plan.”
8.7 billion US dollars (according to the highest performance evaluation plan to feed 5% of the comprehensive return to the mother for the year), resulting in a reduction in the net profit of the mother to zero; 18Q4 volume and price rose together, entering 19 years demand recovery was slightly lower than expected.
It is estimated that the ex-factory price of cement in Q4 is about 361 yuan / ton with a 73% increase, and the gross profit per ton is about 159 yuan.
6 yuan increased by 69 yuan; Q4 tons of net profit of about 109 yuan increased by 68 yuan, a regional boom.
After entering 2019, due to the worsening rainwater weather in southern China and the slower return of factories to Guangdong, the demand recovery in Guangdong has been downward, and it is expected that demand will gradually recover when the weather improves.
We believe that the current internal capacity of Guangdong Province is not excessive. In 19 years, during the Chinese New Year period, the shutdown of the furnaces was basically completed for 20 days. The supply and demand layout continued to improve. In addition to the second phase of production of the tower through-line, there are no other large cements in the region.Project, high prosperity is expected to be maintained.
Production and sales increased by more than 15%, leading the industry.
The company’s 18-year production and sales are 1806.
29 samples, with the same increase of 17.
74%, Q4 single 淡水桑拿网 quarter sales of about 584 vehicles, an increase of 19.
49% crowned the industry; the company ‘s first phase of the access line was completed at the end of 2017, and was basically full in 18 years. It is expected that the second plug-in line will be put into production in 19Q4 (the first in the middle of grinding), and it is expected that the company’s sales in 2019 will reach at least 1900Higher than expected, growing by 5 per year.
At 6%, the release of supplementary production capacity in Guangdong, the highest level in the country, will have great performance flexibility, and the company will maintain a growth trend in the next two years. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan was released to boost medium- and long-term demand.
Recently, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan was released. Since February 19, the first 31 batches of Shenzhen (total investment of 74.9 billion) and the first batch of 27 batches of Dongguan (total investment of 53.4 billion) have been started.The related construction of the district has been gradually accelerated, and the tower Huizhou plant will obviously benefit.
Taking into account the better financial strength of the Guangdong Provincial Government and the stability of the transportation investment target in 2019, we are optimistic about the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the 13th Five-Year Plan period in Guangdong Province. At the same time, according to statistics from E-House and Kerer, the shed reform in Guangdong areaThe proportion of monetized uninventory area to commercial housing sales area was only 0.
63%, affected by the monetization resettlement of the shed reform. Considering the population growth trend in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, we believe that the Pearl River Delta region will be less affected by this round of real estate downward cycles, and the actual real estate market will remain stable.
We believe that with the continuous advancement of transforming the construction of the Bay Area, infrastructure and real estate investment in the Pearl River Delta region is still stable, and it will continue to boost cement demand in the future; investment recommendations: Based on careful judgment of industry supply and demand and the impact of late resumption of work, we cut down on 2019-20Annual company performance forecast to 18.
4.4 billion and 21.
41 trillion, corresponding to 1, respectively.
17) Yuan and 1.
1) Yuan; corresponding to the current PE estimates are 7 respectively.
8 and 6.7 times, maintaining target price of 15.
3 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: the scale of investment in fixed assets is expanded, and the limit of production is less than expected;