Home > awhvqpmqf > Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Research Report: Focus on Nationalized Bonus of Blue and White Porcelain

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Research Report: Focus on Nationalized Bonus of Blue and White Porcelain

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Research Report: Focus on Nationalized Bonus of Blue and White Porcelain

According to recent channel feedback, the company’s Q4 blue and white accelerated acceleration, the growth rate of blue and white in 19 years is expected to be 40% + (19H1 blue and white growth rate of 20% +).

In addition, the company’s Spring Festival repayments are progressing well. Currently, 20-25% of the expected repayments are completed, 15% + is expected to be completed from March to March, and 35% -40% is expected to be completed in the first quarter.

Looking forward to 20 years, the company will focus on high-end blue and white, “grasping the middle of the two belts” to “plug the middle and high control bottom”, the market investment is tilted to blue and white, the target 20 and 30 each increase 1 billion to 5 billion (sales caliber)30 will focus on 50 cities across the country, and Qing 20 will focus on 100 cities. Regional and channel refinement will become more important. Blue and white will become the main driving force of revenue performance.

The company’s reform continues to advance, focusing on blue and white in the future, optimistic about the national dividend of blue and white porcelain, maintaining 19 years of EPS2.

25 yuan, slightly increase EPS 2 for 20-21 years.

92, 3.

50 yuan (previous time 2).

81, 3.

33 yuan), the reform bonus is worth the estimated premium, given a 21-year 35 times, a one-year target price of 122 yuan, maintaining the “strong recommendation-A” rating.

Recent channel feedback: In the fourth quarter, the volume of blue and white flowers accelerated, and the payment for the Spring Festival was progressing well.

According to recent channel feedback, the company accelerated the volume of blue and white in the fourth quarter. The growth rate of blue and white in 19 is expected to be 40% + (19H1 blue and white growth rate 20% +). Since the growth of blue and white in the third quarter accelerated, the fourth quarter continued to accelerate the volume and gradually achieved a breakthrough.expected.

In addition, according to grassroots research feedback, the company’s Spring Festival repayments are progressing well. Currently, 20-25% of the expected repayments are completed, 15% + is expected to be completed from March to March, and 35% -40% is expected to be completed in the first quarter.

At present, the overall sales are stable. The price of the 20 batches of foreign youth in the province is 340-350, and the price of 30 batches is 540-550. The price system is stable.

In 2020, the focus will be on blue and white, and the product structure will continue to be upgraded.

Since 2017, the company has always adhered to the “grasp the middle of the two heads” strategy, with high-end blue and white flowers holding high and playing high, and low-end Bofen cultivating fragrance-based consumption alternatives, and achieved significant results.

Looking forward to 2020, the company’s strategy will shift to “plugging in the middle and high control bottom”, will focus on high-end blue and white, control the amount of Bfen, this year’s goal is to increase the blue and white 20 and 30 by 1 billion to 5 billion (sales caliber), Bofen will controlThe amount can be kept steady and rising.

The company has also made a detailed plan for the operation mode of the blue and white series. In the future, the Qing 20 and 30 will gradually become independent contracts. The Qing 30 will focus on 50 cities across the country, and 20 will focus on 100 cities. The core target market is separated and the core terminalSeparation and separation of core actions, meanwhile, channels are also more refined. Qing 30 is more inclined to buy products, and Qing 20 is more inclined to channel products.

The company’s strategy is clear and the channels are detailed. It is expected that this year’s blue and white will maintain a high growth rate.

How to see the future development space of Fenjiu?

1) The volume of blue and white 夜来香体验网 will become the core driving force for future performance.

The company ‘s strategy shifts to “plugging in the middle and high control bottom”, and it will focus on high-end blue and white in the future. We believe that this is the correct way for the company to continuously increase the height of the Fen liquor brand and promote the return of Fen boss.Driving force.
2) The potential outside the province is still large.

The scale of the company has grown rapidly outside the province, and some investors have expressed changes in the company’s future external expansion of the province. We believe that Fenjiu has a national brand gene. This round of expansion outside the province will enjoy the bonus of distributors focusing on high-quality brands.There is still plenty of room for expansion.

First, in the surrounding Shanxi market, in addition to the improvement in the growth rate of Henan and Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Hebei still maintained high growth rates. Second, the company increased the expansion rate of markets to the south of the Yangtze River, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Guangdong.It is required that the market to the south of the Yangtze River break through, with an average growth rate of 50% in the next three years, and breakthroughs in development potential.

3) The mechanism has been continuously improved, and the endogenous power has been enhanced to ensure long-term development.

The company’s reform continued to advance, performance appraisal was contracted, and cadre employment was contracted. At the same time, employees’ shareholding and equity incentives were actively tried to fully stimulate the company’s internal autonomy and vitality.

In the early 18th, he dated China Resources War Ventures and actively integrated the cooperation with China Resources in strategic coordination to further optimize the corporate governance structure and ensure long-term development.

Investment suggestion: optimistic about the volume of blue and white and the reform dividend, raise the one-year target price to 122 yuan, and maintain the “strong recommendation-A” rating.

The reform of the company continued to advance, and the surrounding Shanxi market continued to exert its strength.

Looking forward to 20 years, the company will focus on high-end blue and white, “grasp the middle of the two heads” to “plug the middle and high-control bottom”, the market shift is tilted to blue and white, blue and white is expected to become the main driving force of revenue performance.

Maintains EPS 2 for 19 years.

25 yuan, slightly increase EPS 2 for 20-21 years.

92, 3.

50 yuan (previous time 2).

81, 3.

33 yuan), the reform bonus is worth the estimated premium, given a 21-year 35 times, a one-year target price of 122 yuan, maintaining the “strong recommendation-A” rating.

Risk Warning: The reform is not up to expectations, and competition outside the province is fierce.